With Aaron Rodgers officially traded to the New York Jets, wide receiver Garrett Wilson figures to see a massive uptick in production. Thanks to the move, FanDuel has us covered with a number of Jets futures as we await the 2023 NFL season. Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards sit front and center of those futures. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a 2023 Garrett Wilson receiving yards prediction and betting pick.
Here are the Garrett Wilson NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Garrett Wilson 2023 Receiving Yards Odds
Over: 1150.5 yards (-112)
Under: 1150.5 yards (-112)
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Why Garrett Wilson’s Yards Could Go Over
Garrett Wilson won the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year thanks to a stellar rookie season. The 2022 No. 10 overall pick, Wilson thrived despite shaky QB play. He appeared in all 17 games, amassing 83 receptions (20th), 1103 yards (15th), and four touchdowns. While he “only” caught 83 passes, his 147 targets ranked sixth in the NFL.
Now, such a stark contrast between receptions and targets traditionally means one of two things. One: the receiver isn’t good. With Wilson, that couldn’t be further from the truth. He dropped just two passes in 2023 and finished as PFF’s No. 9 graded receiver. The issue was quarterback play. Wilson caught passes from four different quarterbacks in his rookie season. Joe Flacco, Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Chris Streveler all took snaps for the Jets. Regardless of whether or not New York is getting MVP Aaron Rodgers, he marks a massive upgrade over that batch of QBs.
For Wilson to hit the over on his yards, he would need to amass just 47 more yards than he did as a rookie. However, only 12 receivers in the NFL surpassed 1150.5 yards. While that sounds like a lot on paper, it’s a relatively exclusive group. Of those, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Amon-Ra St. Brown were all second-year receivers who saw a spike in production from their rookie seasons. Wilson certainly boasts the talent to follow in their footsteps considering only St. Brown received a higher receiving grade in 2023.
Although the Jets made a few changes besides just adding Aaron Rodgers, Wilson remains the unquestioned No. 1 in their offense. By adding Allen Lazard and Mecole Hartman, New York ensured Wilson has even more room to operate in 2023. Lazard figures to be a reliable possession receiver, while Hardman’s field-stretching could open up the middle for Wilson. Additionally, the Jets could draft offensive line help and will get star running back Breece Hall back from injury. While there certainly are a number of mouths to feed in the Jets’ offense, that just means the defensive can’t key in on Wilson as much.
Why Garrett Wilson’s Yards Could Go Under
Despite the hype surrounding Rodgers and the Jets, it’s far from guaranteed success. Perhaps the biggest hurdle facing Wilson breaking out in 2023 is Rodgers himself. After winning MVP in 2021, Rodgers showed signs of age in 2022. His 3695 passing yards marked the lowest amount of his career in full seasons. That was despite playing an additional, 17th game! Rodgers’ struggles were exacerbated when under pressure. Despite Green Bay’s offensive line ranking sixth in Football Outsiders’ pass protection rankings, Rodgers struggled under pressure. He ranked 27th in success rate in obvious passing situations and 28th in yards per attempt. Considering the Jets featured the 17th-ranked pass protection last season, Rodgers likely won’t throw behind an improved offensive line.
Rodgers’ leading receiver last season, Allen Lazard, amassed just 788 yards despite playing 15 games. While Rodgers routinely pushed superstar Devante Adams over 1150 yards during his tenure in Green Bay, it may be too soon to equate Wilson to him. Aside from Adams, the only receiver who surpassed that mark under Rodgers’ command was Jordy Nelson in 2016. Only once, in 2014, did two Packers receivers eclipse that yardage total. Asking Garrett Wilson to hit this over could boil down to asking him to be on par with Devante Adams or prime Jordy Nelson. That may be a lot to ask for a 22-year-old in his second NFL season.
Final Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Betting Prediction & Pick
Aaron Rodgers’ age and 2022 production certainly leave room for concern as he begins his stint with the Jets. While it remains to be seen how Rodgers impacts the Jets’ in the standings, he will assuredly unlock the star potential of Garrett Wilson. The former first-round pick should thrive with a legit quarterback at the helm – even if the aforementioned QB isn’t as good as he once was. Hammer the over quickly for a number that should only continue to climb as the season gets closer and hype builds.
Final Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards Betting Prediction & Pick: Over 1150.5 yards (-112)
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