Early season baseball continues as the Milwaukee Brewers have their home opener, hosting the New York Mets. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Brewers prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Mets head to Milwaukee winning their first series, taking three of four games from the Miami Marlins. Pitching was impressive for the Mets over the first four games, with an era of 2.06, 5th in the MLB on the opening weekend. The Brewers were not bad in their own right, with a 3.46 era for the opening weekend. They were just one of two teams in all of baseball not to hit a home run over the first weekend, and hope to find some power in their bats as they come home for the first time this year.
Here are the Mets-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-205)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+168)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How To Watch Mets vs. Brewers
TV: MLB Network
Time: 2:10 PM ET/ 11:10 AM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Mets starting pitching started the year well. The unit as a whole gave up seven earned runs in 21 1/3 innings pitched, good for a 2.99 ERA to start the year. Encouraging the Mets was the first major league start from Kodai Senga, who came over from Japan. In five and a third innings Senga struck out eight while allowing one run on three hits and three walks. The bullpen looked good for the Mets as well, with David Robertson picking up his first save of the year. Robertson appeared twice in the series against the Marlins, giving up one hit while striking out three and not yielding a run in his two innings of work.
Beyond the pitching, Tommy Pham just capped off his weekend with a great performance in the last game against the Marlins. To start the year, Pham is hitting .429, with an OBP of .500, plus a home run and three RBI. Pete Alonso has already hit his first home run of the year, while Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha are getting on base at a good clip. The Mets would like to see Eduardo Escobar have a better series though. Against Miami, Escobar went one for 16 and struck out seven times.
Tonight, the Mets will hope to get solid pitching from their fifth starter, Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco was 15-7 last season, but ended the year on a rocky note, failing to get to the fifth inning in his last three starts. He did just throw 70 pitches in a minor-league game last week, so there is hope that Carrasco’s elbow is healthy and he can make an impact for this Mets squad. Ultimately, if he pitches as the other starters have, they should be just fine this afternoon.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
While the Mets have not had the most power in their bats to start the year, the Brewers have had none. First, have yet to hit a home run in their first three games. The BrewCrew does have some power in their lineup between Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez, and Christian Yelich, so the homerless drought should be ending soon. Secondly, it is not just home runs that are missing from the Brewer bats. They have the fifth-worst slugging percentage in the MLB so far this year, with a .286 slugging. That means they are not even getting extra-base hits. While 25th in slugging, they are 15th in batting average, so it is a lot of singles for the Brewers so far. That style of hitting the single and moving the player over can win some games, but not all.
Ultimately, more than extra-base hits win ball games. Pitching is going to be a key factor, and the Brewers did a solid job in their first weekend of keeping opponents off base. They had a 1.12 WHIP over the weekend, which was good for seventh in MLB. It is hard to score when you do not get on base, and the Brewers limited scoring opportunities for the Cubs over the weekend.
Tonight the task of keeping the Mets off of the basepath will fall to Freddy Peralta. Peralta finished 4-4 on the year in 2022, only spending partial time as a starter. His spring training had some promise though, striking out 17 batters in just 14 innings while giving up five runs. He limited the long ball and walks over the spring, and if that continues, it will bode well for the Brewers.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Brewers did not look bad in their opening series, but their lack of extra-base hits, and a very average showing from the offense is concerning. The Mets’ offense looked good, and Alonso is not yet in full stride. The match-up with Alonso facing Peralta could be interesting though. Alonso is in a ballpark that had the 12th highest homerun factor in the MLB last season and is facing a pitcher who historically has struggled in April. He gets ahold of one today, and the Mets come away with a win.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Mets +1.5 (-205)
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