Opening Day is just around the corner and another season will begin for the Seattle Mariners as they try to make it back to the Postseason. Check out our MLB odds series as we make a prediction for Julio Rodriguez and pick his over/under on home runs!
Julio Rodriguez splashed onto the MLB scene last year as a rookie and had an electrifying run to lead his Seattle Mariners to the Postseason. During the 2022 season, Rodriguez batted .284 with 75 RBI, 28 HR, 25 SB, and a .509 slugging rate en route to winning American League Rookie of the Year and being selected to the All-Star game. He had a number of electrifying runs throughout the season and became the fastest player in MLB history to record 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases. In his sophomore campaign, he’ll look to lead the Mariners to their franchise’s first-ever World Series.
Here are the 2023 MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 MLB Odds: Julio Rodriguez Regular Season Home Runs
OVER: 27.5 (-113)
UNDER: 27.5 (-113)
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Why Julio Rodriguez can hit the Over
For any rookie, hitting 28 home runs in a season is a rather unattainable goal. There’s been a rather short list of players who have hit 30+ home runs in a season, so Julio Rodriguez was in the midst of some serious company as he lead all rookies with his total. If he were to hit 25 home runs in this upcoming season, it would still be considered a phenomenal year for him considering all of the other things he does both defensively and in his baserunning. He’s also a huge morale booster for the Mariners clubhouse and plays with a ton of energy behind a dedicated fanbase.
His home/away HR splits were almost even with 15 coming in T-Mobile Park and the other 13 on the road. He faced almost twice as many RHP and managed 21 of his home runs off them, the other seven came off LHP. He currently has the fourth-highest odds to win AL MVP at +900 behind Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Mike Trout. Given the success he had in seeing the ball in his first year, there’s a chance Rodriguez improves even more and smashes his previous HR total.
Why Julio Rodriguez can hit the Under
There’s always a worry in baseball for second-year players that production may dip or they may find themselves in an unfamiliar rhythm. Again, hitting 28 home runs in your first two seasons is a massive feat for anyone. Additionally, Rodriguez was able to do it while only playing in 132 games. Injuries will continue to be a concern for any player, but if Rodriguez is able to stay healthy and play even 10 more games than he did last season, he’ll have a good chance to go over. But the rapid success he had in bursts last season is extremely hard to replicate, so any prolonged injuries would certainly be a big setback in the pace for over 27.5. He’ll have a number of tough rotations to face against this year including the stacked Astros and the lefty-dominant Angels.
Final Julio Rodriguez Regular Season Home Runs Prediction
The safe bet in a situation like this would be to bet on the regression and predict that Julio will still have a great season batting-wise, but will fall just short of hitting his total from last season. He’s more of a gap-to-gap hitter and does some of his best work on running the bases, so it was surprising to see him hit so many bombs in a shorter season. However, the AL MVP odds are very telling. It may not be all hype with J-Rod – let’s take him to go over his total and have another unbelievable year.
Final Julio Rodriquez Regular Season Home Runs Prediction: OVER 27.5 Home Runs (-113)
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